Trump’s 100% tariff on pharma imports clouds India’s trade:Uncertainty over the definition of ‘branded drugs’ persists – unpacked the dilemma step-by-step

India’s $9.8 billion pharmaceutical exports to the US are facing an unusual challenge: confusion over what counts as “branded”. The Trump administration’s 100% tariff announcement on branded drug imports, effective October 1, has triggered anxiety in the Indian pharma industry, a major supplier of affordable generics to America. At the core of the uncertainty lies a grey area — branded generics, drugs that are technically off-patent but still sold under a brand name. “The biggest uncertainty for India lies in the definition of ‘branded’ under the new tariff policy. If US authorities treat such branded generics as ‘branded imports’, such exports could be subject to the 100% tariff, even though they are off-patented. “We must wait for US legal documents to say this with certainty,” according to Ajay Srivastava, a former trade official and founder of think-tank, Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI). Conclusion “European countries, which supply high-value branded and patented drugs, are expected to face the most immediate and severe impact from the new tariffs,” according to GTRI. However, “For now, India’s low-cost generic model, off-patent and generic formulations, may offer a cushion against the shock of Trump’s tariff,” it said. In retrospect, India’s Pharmaceutical exports, despite enjoying zero duty on most drugs since new Trump tariffs were rolled out, experienced a 13.3% decline, falling from $745 million in May to $646.6 million in August 2025. Srivastava notes, “Tariff-exempt exports collapse is a puzzle. It is alarming and counter-intuitive — these products face zero US tariffs, yet they have seen the steepest decline.” ​