Ukraine’s attacks trigger Hormuz-like crisis in Russia:Shipping in Sea of Azov disrupted; 116 vessels attacked in 9 days

Russia’s maritime trade has come under pressure after a series of Ukrainian drone strikes forced the suspension of ship movements through key routes in the Sea of Azov, disrupting cargo traffic and raising concerns over exports of oil, wheat and other commodities. According to satellite imagery and shipping data, vessel traffic has been halted through the Don-Azov Channel and the Kerch Strait, leaving a large number of ships stranded on both sides of the waterways awaiting clearance. Ukraine has expanded its drone campaign in recent months, targeting not only Russian naval vessels and oil tankers but also critical maritime infrastructure. On Wednesday, Robert Brovdi, commander of Ukraine’s drone forces, claimed that Ukrainian drones had targeted 116 Russian vessels in the Sea of Azov over the past nine days. The disruption is expected to affect Russia’s exports of oil, wheat, sunflower oil, steel and other commodities. Analysts warn that the impact could extend beyond the energy sector, as agricultural exports that are not covered by Western sanctions may also face delays. The Institute for the Study of War (ISW) said Ukraine’s strategy is aimed at weakening Russia’s logistics network by isolating occupied Crimea from mainland supply routes while disrupting maritime exports through the Sea of Azov. Wheat exports at risk Russia exports around 25% of its wheat through ports linked to the Sea of Azov, making the disruption a potential blow to one of the country’s most important export industries. Analysts warn that if shipping restrictions continue, Russia could suffer billions of dollars in economic losses. As the world’s largest wheat exporter, accounting for nearly 20% of global wheat exports, any prolonged disruption could also affect international grain markets. Reports indicate that wheat futures have already begun rising following the latest developments. Although Russian authorities say wheat exports can be rerouted through other Black Sea ports, experts caution that those ports may lack the capacity to absorb additional cargo during the peak export season. Why the Sea of Azov is strategically important The Sea of Azov is an inland sea bordered by Russia and Ukraine and connected to the Black Sea through the Kerch Strait. Under a 2003 agreement, both countries shared access to the waterway. However, after Russia annexed Crimea in 2014, Ukraine accused Moscow of repeatedly violating the agreement. Following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, Russia gained control over most of Ukraine’s coastline along the Sea of Azov, with President Vladimir Putin describing it as “Russia’s sea”. Despite its relatively small size, the Sea of Azov plays a crucial role in Russia’s economy. It is linked to an extensive network of rivers and canals built during the Soviet era, allowing oil, wheat, sunflower oil, steel and other goods from southern Russia to be transported to the Black Sea and exported to international markets. ​