Iran-US 60-day deadline ends:Why did Trump still not order an attack? Know about America’s low-key strategy

The 60-day agreement reached between the US and Iran in June expired on Monday. The aim was to halt the ongoing war between the two countries and find a solution to the dispute over Iran’s nuclear programme. Even after the deadline expired, no final agreement was reached, nor did the US launch a major new attack on Iran. During the 60 days, Trump repeatedly said that if talks failed, the US was fully prepared for military action. Therefore, it was widely expected that the US could launch another major attack on Iran as soon as the deadline ended. However, just before the deadline expired, Trump’s stance appeared to change. In an interview with Axios, Trump said, “We’re keeping it low-key.” This suggests that, for now, the US wants to maintain pressure on Iran through economic pressure, sanctions, a naval blockade and limited diplomatic engagement rather than immediately launching another major military attack. In other words, Trump’s current strategy is to increase economic pressure on Iran and let it face the consequences of its economic collapse, instead of immediately dragging the US back into a major war. What does Trump hope to achieve by holding back an attack? The key to understanding Trump’s current strategy is that the US does not consider the war completely over. US Vice President JD Vance said on Saturday that the conflict has not ended and that the US is using diplomatic, economic and military means. However, Trump appears to believe that increasing economic pressure on Iran could be more effective at this stage than a military attack. The US naval blockade has further intensified Iran’s economic difficulties. Trump believes that if Iran is not engaged in war, it will have to confront its actual economic condition — including damaged infrastructure, a weak economy, inflation and a shortage of funds. In other words, the US strategy is to stop the fighting and allow Iran to weaken. US officials believe that if the war continues, the Iranian government can blame the conflict for the country’s economic problems. But when there is no war, the public and the government will have to confront the economic crisis directly. That is why Trump currently wants to give economic pressure more time instead of launching another military attack. Why did Trump have to change his strategy against Iran? Trump had started the war against Iran in February alongside Israel. Initially, the conflict was expected to be short-lived, but it dragged on for several months. The US now faces pressure on two fronts. On one hand, it wants to achieve its military objectives against Iran; on the other, the rising cost of a prolonged war is becoming a concern. Trump has repeatedly said that Iran’s weak economy is America’s biggest strength. In an interview, Trump said the US had two options: either let Iran collapse economically or launch a massive military attack against it. For now, Trump appears to be pursuing the first option. However, this does not mean the US has ended the confrontation. According to Reuters, the Trump administration is considering new sanctions on Chinese refineries that buy Iranian oil. It is also preparing action against Chinese banks that conduct transactions with Iran and entities accused of helping Tehran evade sanctions. In other words, although the attacks may have paused, the pressure has not eased. Strait of Hormuz becomes the biggest bargaining chip The Strait of Hormuz has become the biggest point of leverage in the current confrontation between the US and Iran. A large share of the world’s oil passes through this maritime route. Any disruption in the Strait of Hormuz could therefore affect not only the US and Iran, but also global oil markets and maritime trade. Iran is negotiating the issue with Oman. On August 9, Iranian officials said a deal with Oman had reached its final stage. However, Tehran has also made it clear that reaching an agreement with Oman does not mean the Strait of Hormuz will immediately be opened to international shipping. Iran wants the US to first end its naval blockade, lift sanctions and compensate it for the damage caused by the war. The US, meanwhile, wants the sea route and movement of ships to return to normal, while Iran is linking this to concessions from Washington. That is why the Strait of Hormuz is no longer just a maritime route. It has become the biggest bargaining tool between the two countries. The US is paying a heavy price for the war According to sources, during the five-month war with Iran, the US used a large number of long-range missiles, including ATACMS and precision-strike missiles. Two sources claimed that the US had used almost its entire stockpile of these weapons, although they did not provide exact figures. The US has also lost at least 45 MQ-9 Reaper drones during the war. That represents around 25% of its total fleet. According to the US Air Force, a single Reaper drone can cost between $30 million and $50 million, depending on its equipment. The Washington Post reported that the total cost of these losses could exceed $1.3 billion. These drones were used particularly for surveillance and strikes around the Strait of Hormuz. Because of their low altitude and slow speed, they remained vulnerable to Iranian forces and Iran-backed groups. Before the war began, the US had around 185 Reaper drones — 165 with the Air Force and 20 with the Marine Corps. In May, US Air Force Lieutenant General David Tabor told the Senate that the Air Force had around 135 Reapers remaining. The Pentagon is already working on plans to gradually phase out Reaper drones and replace them with cheaper armed drones. Long-range missiles can also cost more than $1 million each. They have been used extensively in the war in Ukraine as well. If the US runs low on these weapons, its ability to launch major attacks against Iran or respond to other rivals such as Russia and China could be affected in the future. However, another US official said America could replenish these weapons from its military stockpiles located around the world. What are Iran’s demands? The US wants to increase economic pressure on Iran and force it towards a deal. But Iran is also using the options available to it. The Strait of Hormuz is the biggest example. Iran has put forward six demands to the US for reopening the strait. In other words, the US is using economic sanctions as a tool of pressure, while Iran is using its control over one of the world’s most important oil shipping routes as leverage. This is why, despite room for negotiations between the two sides, reaching an agreement remains difficult. ​