Israel to vote in 20 days:Netanyahu faces risk of defeat as Hamas attack reshapes politics, weakens left and marginalises Arab parties

Israel will hold its first general election since the October 7, 2023 Hamas attack, with security, Hamas and the Palestinian issue dominating the campaign. The attack has not only triggered a prolonged war in Gaza but also reshaped Israel’s political landscape. On October 7, 2023, around 6,000 Hamas fighters crossed into Israel and attacked cities and residential areas. People were killed in their homes and shelters, while more than 250 people were taken hostage and transported to Gaza. Around 1,200 people were killed in the attack. Israel responded with a military campaign in Gaza. Three years later, the consequences of October 7 extend beyond the war. The attack has fundamentally changed the issues dominating Israeli elections and strengthened the country’s already powerful right-wing politics. Security replaces inflation and Netanyahu’s cases as top issue Israel is scheduled to hold its general election on October 27. Before October 7, issues such as inflation, housing prices and the legal cases against Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu featured prominently in political debates. The political agenda has since shifted. Security, Hamas, the military and the future of the Palestinian territories are now among the central issues in the election. The shift has strengthened right-wing parties, while left-wing politics has weakened. Arab parties, which played a decisive role in government formation in 2021, are also finding it harder to act as coalition kingmakers. Netanyahu faces direct challenge from former army chief The election is not only a referendum on Netanyahu’s political future. He is also facing demands to explain how the October 7 attack happened while he was prime minister. Netanyahu is facing a direct challenge from former army chief Gadi Eisenkot. Recent opinion polls have shown Eisenkot’s party either tied with or ahead of Netanyahu’s Likud. In one recent poll, Likud was projected to win around 22-23 seats, while Eisenkot’s party was projected to win around 22 seats. Netanyahu’s wider right-wing alliance is also currently short of the 61 seats required to form a government. The average of recent polls puts the alliance at around 52-55 seats. Right-wing politics grew stronger after October 7 Right-wing politics was already dominant in Israel before the Hamas attack. Netanyahu’s Likud and religious-nationalist parties were part of the government. However, October 7 made national security the central political issue. Right-wing leaders began calling for a tougher approach towards Hamas and the Palestinians. Politicians such as Itamar Ben-Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich gained greater prominence in debates over security and the Palestinian question. Opposition to the creation of a Palestinian state, support for Jewish settlements in the West Bank and tougher policies towards Palestinians have also become more prominent in political discourse. Israeli Left shifts from peace to security Before October 7, the Labour Party and Meretz were among the most prominent forces on Israel’s political Left. Both advocated recognising Palestine and pursuing a political solution to the conflict. Meretz also supported an Israeli withdrawal from occupied areas of the West Bank. The October 7 attack, however, severely weakened this political approach. With security and terrorism becoming the dominant concerns, Labour and Meretz joined forces in 2024 to form the Democrats party, led by former military officer Yair Golan. The party continues to support a political solution with the Palestinians and opposes annexation of the West Bank. At the same time, it emphasises ending Hamas’ rule and strengthening Israel’s security. This marks a major shift in Israeli politics. Security is no longer an issue associated only with the Right. Parties opposing Netanyahu also have to address voters’ concerns over Hamas, terrorism and national security. Arab parties once made Netanyahu lose power The changing role of Arab parties can be seen by comparing the 2021 and 2026 elections. In 2021, no political bloc secured the 61 seats required to form a government. Netanyahu remained the largest political figure but could not gather enough support to form a majority. Parties opposed to him eventually joined forces. Right-wing leader Naftali Bennett and centrist leader Yair Lapid formed a coalition that included parties from the Left and Right, along with Mansour Abbas’s Arab party Ra’am. Ra’am’s four seats helped the coalition cross the majority mark. Netanyahu, who had served as prime minister for around 12 years, was pushed out of office. It was the first time an Arab party became part of a coalition that formed the Israeli government. 2026: Arab parties may have seats, but joining government is harder The political situation is very different after October 7. Current surveys suggest Arab parties could win around 13 seats, potentially giving them significant influence in a closely contested parliament. However, bringing an Arab party into the government has become politically more difficult. Such a move could face strong opposition from Jewish voters amid heightened security concerns and tensions following the Gaza war. In 2021, Arab parties became the “kingmakers” who helped remove Netanyahu from power. In 2026, they could once again hold enough seats to influence government formation, but the political climate created by October 7 has made their inclusion in a coalition far more difficult. ​