Experts decode India’s GDP’s high growth rate:Industry stalwart warns Indian economy may face sharp decline; other says ‘Trump Tariffs’ impact yet to be seen

India clocked impressive rise in the growth of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) by 8.2% in the September 2025 quarter (Q2) of the Financial Year 2025-26 (FY26). The country’s GDP has increased continuously in the last one year. As a result, the metric has reached 6-quarter high in Q2 FY26.
Key Highlights of Indian economy in Sept 2025 quarter:

So, is it that the Modi magic has finally worked? Lets see how experts decode the GDP numbers:
Professor of Economics, Bharathidasan University and former member Kerala State Planning Board, Venkatesh Athreya says that albeit real GDP is on the rise, but, the growth rate of the country’s nominal GDP has fallen recently.
First lets see what is the difference between real GDP and nominal GDP?
The main difference between real GDP and nominal GDP is that the former is adjusted for inflation, while the nominal GDP is not.
Athreya says, It is important not to read too much into quarterly numbers on macroeconomic variables such as the rate of growth of GDP or GVA. The point that the relatively high growth rate of real GDP in Q2 of 2025-26 is accompanied by a relatively sluggish growth of nominal GDP should be a matter of concern, as it reflects a sluggish economy.
Manufacturing sector grew by 9.1% because of low base effect: Expert
According to Athreya:
The fact that the growth in manufacturing reflects the base effect of low growth earlier should also be kept in mind. High GDP doesn’t matter; well being of population matters: Athreya adds, One must not make a fetish of growth rate numbers. The nature of growth in terms of the well being of the majority of the population matters. Reported ‘high’ quarterly growth rates are no guarantee of well being.

Athreya says that looking at past patterns of India’s GDP, it must be recalled that high growth rates follow a sharp decline going forward.

While, Vidyanand Choudhary, assistant professor at a college in Bihar says that the 50% Trump Tariffs have still not taken effect on Indian economy and its impact remains to be seen in the future. According to Choudhary:
The Trump tariff has not really taken effect in this quarter because to avoid its effect, the exporters got greater orders in advance in the previous quarter. ​