India’s GDP falls to 3-quarter low of 7.8% in Q4:Full year growth estimated at 7.7%; PM Modi says India’s growth reflects ‘hard work of 140 crore Indians’

India’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth rate has fallen sequentially to a 3-quarter low of 7.8% in the March quarter (Q4) of the Financial Year 2025-26 (FY26) from a revised 8% in Q3 FY26, according to data released by the National Statistics Office (NSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) on Friday, 5 June, 2026. Data released by the MoSPI on Friday also showed that the government marginally raised full financial year 2026 GDP growth rate projections to 7.7% from the erstwhile 7.6%. Govt raises FY26 GDP projections on consumption boost Despite the disruptions caused by the Iran war, the government marginally hiked the full fiscal year 2026 growth predictions based on an increase in the rate of Private Final Consumption Expenditure (PFCE) of 7.7% in the country. What is Private Final Consumption Expenditure? PFCE refers to consumer spending, representing the total value of final goods and services bought by resident households. PM Modi says India’s growth reflects ‘hard work of 140 crore Indians’ Iran war leads to fall in quarterly growth rate: India’s economic growth rate fell to a 3-quarter low of 7.8% in the March 2026 quarter due to slowing of growth in sectors like agriculture (3.6%) and manufacturing (7.3%). Services sector prop up Q4 FY26 growth rate: Thanks to the acceleration in growth rate of various components of the tertiary sector like hotel, transport, financial, real estate, IT, etc, to 9.9% that, the economy expansion didn’t slow down much in the March quarter. Data released with new base year 2022-23 The Ministry of Statistics has presented the GDP figures for the entire financial year 2025-26 with new base year of 2022-23. Data on domestic help, drivers and e-vehicles also included These figures are being released with 2022-23 as the base year. To make economic estimates more accurate, the new GDP numbers also include data related to GST network, e-vehicle database and services of cooks, drivers and domestic help working in households. Base-year is usually changed every 5 years The base year is changed from time to time to record major changes occurring in the economy over time. Usually the ministry updates the data series every five years, but this work was delayed due to the COVID pandemic and GST implementation. Govt to release back data series of up to 1950 by December 2026 The government will also recalculate old data according to the new base year. The ministry has indicated that under this new framework, ‘back-series’ data (figures up to 1950-51) is expected to arrive by December 2026. New measurement will increase accuracy; standards should be changed every 5 to 10 years Why was the method of measuring GDP changed? The 2011-12 scale had become 14 years old. At that time, things like UPI, Zomato, OTT, gig economy didn’t even exist. That’s why it was necessary. Why was 2022-23 chosen as the base year? This year was ‘normal’. Corona had ended. The economy was stable. Digital India had been established. The base year is always chosen when there is neither too much surge nor decline. What impact will this have on the common man? There won’t be a direct impact on the pocket, but with accurate data, the government will make better policies. Money will be invested in the right places and foreign investment will also increase, which will gradually benefit the common citizen. Have the figures been changed or has something been hidden? No. When measured with a new scale, the measurement changes, this is natural. America, Britain, China all do the same. Changing figures is a sign of accuracy. At what interval should it be changed? According to international standards, it should be changed every 5 to 10 years. In the country, 5 years is fixed, but there was a delay in 2017-18 due to demonetization and GST. After that, COVID came, so it was done now. Knowledge Part: What is Base Year Base year is the year whose prices are considered ‘fixed’ to measure today’s economic progress. It helps show the country’s ‘real’ growth by removing the effect of inflation. Example: If a pen cost ₹5 in 2011 and costs ₹10 today. If we are still making 100 pens today, then according to 2011, GDP will show ₹500. Whereas according to today’s calculation, it will be 1000 rupees. Base year helps us understand whether we are making more pens or the pen has just become expensive. GDP tells the health of the economy GDP means how much value of goods were produced and how many services were provided within the country in a fixed time period. It can also be called the ‘report card’ of the country’s economic health. It includes not only Indian companies but also the production of foreign companies operating in the country. Two types of GDP: Real and Nominal Real GDP: In this, the price of goods and services is determined from the base. Until now, its year was 2011-12. This shows whether production in the country has actually increased or not. Nominal GDP: This is based on current market prices. It also includes inflation. If prices of things are increasing, then nominal GDP will also appear increased. ​