After Hormuz, Trump now eyes Strait of Malacca:US, Indonesia sign ‘major’ defence cooperation agreement

The situation in the Strait of Hormuz is currently extremely tense. The United States is tightening restrictions on the activities of vessels linked to Iran in the region. At the same time, a new defence agreement was signed between the US and Indonesia on 13 April. Under this agreement, US military aircraft have been granted easier access to Indonesian airspace. Officially, this has been described as a step to enhance cooperation between the two countries, but questions are being raised about the timing. The agreement comes as the US has initiated a blockade in the Strait of Hormuz to increase pressure on Iran. As a result, oil supplies have nearly come to a halt, with prices rising above $100 per barrel. In this context, it is believed that the US may be seeking to strengthen its ability to monitor the Strait of Malacca. Focus on Malacca after Hormuz The Strait of Malacca is one of the busiest maritime routes in the world. It connects the Indian Ocean to East Asia and handles around 40% of global trade and approximately 30% of oil shipments. Its geographical characteristics make it particularly significant. At the Philip Channel, the strait narrows to just 3 kilometres, creating a major bottleneck. It is about nine times narrower than Hormuz. The strait is controlled by Indonesia, Malaysia and Singapore. A substantial portion of global trade passes through this route, meaning that any disruption here can have an immediate impact on international commerce. Following the US–Indonesia agreement, experts believe that the US is pursuing a broader strategy to secure key maritime routes in the Indo-Pacific. American analysts and former military personnel suggest that Washington is strengthening its presence around critical global chokepoints. China’s biggest vulnerability If Hormuz is vital for oil supply, Malacca can be considered a lifeline for global trade. Alongside oil, large volumes of electronics, machinery and other goods pass through this route. For China, the strait represents a major strategic vulnerability. Around 80% of its oil imports transit through Malacca, making it crucial to the country’s industrial economy and export system. This dependence has long been seen as a weakness. Former Chinese President Hu Jintao famously referred to it as the “Malacca Dilemma”. Recently, China has increased its maritime mapping and monitoring activities in the surrounding region. Why Malacca matters to India The Strait of Malacca is equally important for India. Approximately 55% of India’s trade passes through this route and the Singapore region. India’s geographical position provides it with a strategic advantage. The Andaman and Nicobar Islands lie close to the western entrance of the strait and can be reached from Port Blair within 24 hours. India’s INS Baaz air station, located in Campbell Bay, plays a key role in monitoring the area. According to experts, it gives India the capability to track maritime traffic effectively. Potential for US–India cooperation Experts believe that if the US expands its role in the Malacca Strait, India could play a significant part. Singapore has, for the first time, formally acknowledged India’s interest in the Malacca Strait Patrol, indicating that regional cooperation may increase. However, the situation is not straightforward. Indonesia and Malaysia remain highly sensitive about the strait and are reluctant to compromise their sovereignty. Although Singapore’s territorial share is small, its role in global shipping is immense. Its port and maritime services form the backbone of its economy, and it is keen to avoid any instability along this route. In recent times, debates over maritime taxes and regulations have intensified, adding to concerns among Southeast Asian nations. In this context, the growing involvement of the United States suggests it is aiming to strengthen its presence across multiple key maritime routes simultaneously. ​