Amid forecasts of below-normal rainfall in India this year, concerns are growing over the return of El Niño. According to the US weather agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), El Niño could begin developing between May and July. NOAA said that temperatures in the Pacific Ocean are currently 0.5°C above normal in May. This dangerous weather pattern may continue throughout the monsoon season. Last month, the probability of El Niño developing was estimated at 61%, but it has now increased to 82%. India Meteorological Department chief Mrutyunjay Mohapatra said this will directly affect monsoon rainfall and increase the risk of drought across the country. What is El Niño? Explained simply El Niño causes sea surface temperatures to become unusually warm and also changes wind patterns. As a result, rainfall cycles around the world get disrupted. Some regions face severe drought, while others experience heavy rain and floods. In simple terms, when El Niño becomes active, it weakens the monsoon winds moving from the Pacific Ocean towards India, affecting rainfall. Before understanding El Niño, it is important to understand two basic geography concepts: In areas where air and water become warm, they start rising upward. This applies to both ocean water and the air around us. Cooler air and water from nearby regions then move in to replace the warm air and water. Wherever ocean surface water becomes warm, the air above it also heats up and rises. This creates a low-pressure (LP) area. Warm seawater also turns into vapour, forming clouds that bring rainfall. In simple words, low pressure means more rain, while high pressure (HP) is linked to dry conditions. Chances of El Niño rise to 82%, global impact expected According to NOAA’s latest update, there is an 82% chance that El Niño will develop between May and July this year. There is also a 96% chance that it will continue through winter, from December 2026 to February 2027. Experts believe there is around a 67% chance that it could become “strong” or “very strong”. This has increased concerns over weak monsoons, drought and heatwaves. India and South-East Asia may receive less rainfall and face extreme heat. Indonesia and northern Australia could face drought and forest fires due to falling moisture levels. Rising sea temperatures in the central Pacific region may lead to heavy rainfall and cyclones. Which parts of India are most at risk? Northern, western and central parts of India face the highest risk of drought-like conditions, which could lead to long dry spells and agricultural losses. Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan are expected to be the most sensitive states during August and September. Even regions in central and western India that usually receive good rainfall may get below-normal rain this year. In Madhya Pradesh, below-normal rainfall is expected in the divisions of Indore, Ujjain, Gwalior, Chambal, Jabalpur, Rewa, Shahdol, Sagar and Narmadapuram. However, the impact is expected to be lower in Ladakh, some parts of Rajasthan, Telangana and certain areas of north India. Despite more rainfall, the world is becoming drier Although overall rainfall is increasing globally, land and ecosystems are becoming drier. According to a new study published in Nature, rainfall is no longer spread evenly throughout the year. Instead, it is happening in shorter but more intense storms, with long dry periods in between. As a result, when too much rain falls at once, the soil cannot absorb it properly. The water remains on the surface and quickly evaporates, increasing dryness over time. Post navigation Sidhi Launches ‘Hello Sidhi-Jai Jawan’ Helpline for Soldier Families ‘Pakistan must stop sheltering terrorists’:Indian Army Chief says, ‘They have to decide whether to be part of geography or history’
